Forecasting Economic Aggregates by Disaggregates
53 Pages Posted: 21 Mar 2006
Date Written: February 2006
We suggest an alternative use of disaggregate information to forecast the aggregate variable of interest, that is to include disaggregate information or disaggregate variables in the aggregate model as opposed to first forecasting the disaggregate variables separately and then aggregating those forecasts or, alternatively, using only lagged aggregate information in forecasting the aggregate. We show theoretically that the first method of forecasting the aggregate should outperform the alternative methods in population. We investigate whether this theoretical prediction can explain our empirical findings and analyse why forecasting the aggregate using information on its disaggregate components improves forecast accuracy of the aggregate forecast of euro area and US inflation in some situations, but not in others.
Keywords: Disaggregate information, predictability, forecast model selection, VAR, factor models
JEL Classification: C51, C53, E31
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation