Inflation Targeting in the United Kingdom: Information Content of Financial and Monetary Variables
28 Pages Posted: 15 Feb 2006
Date Written: May 1996
Abstract
The main objective of this paper is to identify a set of leading indicators of inflation for the United Kingdom, and discuss the conceptual issues pertaining to inflation targeting. The main conclusions are that narrow money has strong leading indicator properties for inflation, while broad money does not. Long yields appear to have some information for the GDP deflator, and headline inflation, and short yields for underlying inflation. Spreads between commercial paper and gilts, and the yield curve, have very little predictive information on inflation. An interesting conclusion is that while the nominal effective exchange rate is not a good predictor of inflation, the sterling-deutsche mark exchange rate appears to have weak predictive information on the targeted measure of inflation.
JEL Classification: E5, E52, C5
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?
Recommended Papers
-
Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory
By Richard Clarida, Jordi Galí, ...
-
The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective
By Richard Clarida, Jordi Galí, ...
-
The Science of Monetary Policy: a New Keynesian Perspective
By Richard Clarida, Jordi Galí, ...
-
An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Expanded Version
-
Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence
By Richard Clarida, Jordi Galí, ...
-
Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets