Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2006-06
27 Pages Posted: 16 Feb 2006
There are 3 versions of this paper
Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets
Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets
Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets
Date Written: February 2006
Abstract
Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management - in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature, and we argue that resolving these questions is crucial to determining whether current optimism about prediction markets will be realized.
Keywords: prediction markets, information markets, event futures, political forecasting
JEL Classification: C9, D7, D8, G1, M2
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?
Recommended Papers
-
By Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz
-
By Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz
-
What Do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq?
By Andrew Leigh, Justin Wolfers, ...
-
What Do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq?
By Andrew Leigh, Justin Wolfers, ...
-
Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
By Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz
-
Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
By Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz
-
Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
By Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz
-
Did Steve Forbes Scare the Municipal Bond Market?
By Joel B. Slemrod and Timothy Greimel
-
Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections
By Erik C. Snowberg, Justin Wolfers, ...