Using an Ec-Wide Monetary Aggregate in Stage Two of Emu

20 Pages Posted: 15 Feb 2006

See all articles by Tamim Bayoumi

Tamim Bayoumi

International Monetary Fund (IMF); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Peter B. Kenen

Princeton University - Department of Economics

Date Written: July 1992

Abstract

This paper looks at whether the aggregate ERM money supply has been a useful predictor of short-term changes in inflation and growth, and long-term trends in price levels among the core ERM countries. The evidence suggests that over the period since 1987, when there have been no realignments, the ERM money supply performs at least as well, and arguably better, than the individual national aggregates in predicting nominal aggregates such as inflation and the price level, while neither money supply is a good predictor of real activity.

JEL Classification: E42, E52, F36

Suggested Citation

Bayoumi, Tamim and Kenen, Peter B., Using an Ec-Wide Monetary Aggregate in Stage Two of Emu (July 1992). IMF Working Paper, Vol. , pp. 1-20, 1992. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=884859

Tamim Bayoumi (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States
202-623-6333 (Phone)
202-623-4795 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Peter B. Kenen

Princeton University - Department of Economics ( email )

Princeton, NJ 08544-1021
United States
609-258-4051 (Phone)
609-258-5398 (Fax)

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