Modelling the Yield Curve

38 Pages Posted: 15 Feb 2006

See all articles by Mark P. Taylor

Mark P. Taylor

Washington University in St. Louis - John M. Olin Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Brookings Institution

Date Written: December 1991


We test and estimate a variety of alternative models of the yield curve, using weekly, high-quality U.K. data. We extend the Campbell-Shiller technique to the overlapping data case and apply it to reject the pure expectations hypothesis under rational expectations. We also find that risk measures, in the form of conditional interest rate volatility, are unable to explain the term premium. A simple, market segmentation approach is, however, moderately successful in explaining the term premium.

Keywords: interest rates, term structure, expectations, risk, market segmentation

JEL Classification: E43

Suggested Citation

Taylor, Mark P., Modelling the Yield Curve (December 1991). IMF Working Paper No. 91/134, Available at SSRN:

Mark P. Taylor (Contact Author)

Washington University in St. Louis - John M. Olin Business School ( email )

One Brookings Drive
Campus Box 1156
St. Louis, MO 63130-4899
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

United Kingdom

Brookings Institution ( email )

1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

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