Halloween or January? Yet Another Puzzle

23 Pages Posted: 7 Mar 2006

See all articles by Brian M. Lucey

Brian M. Lucey

Trinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin; Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics and Finance; Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics

Xinlei Shelly Zhao

Government of the United States of America - Office of the Currency Comptroller - Risk Analysis Division

Date Written: March 2006

Abstract

Recent works suggest a potentially exploitable effect in US markets, the 'Halloween Indicator'. This suggests that the greater part of changes in equity markets arises over the November-April period, with little change over the summer months, simultaneous with no evident changes in the risk profiles of the two six-month periods. We re-examine this and find contradictory evidence. Over the 1926-2002 period we find rather that the effect demonstrated may well be a reflection of the well-known January anomaly. Our conclusion therefore is that the jury remains out on the existence of a semi-annual seasonality.

Keywords: January Effect, Halloween Effect, USA, Market Efficiency, Seasonality

JEL Classification: C32, G15, F36

Suggested Citation

Lucey, Brian M. and Zhao, Xinlei, Halloween or January? Yet Another Puzzle (March 2006). IIIS Discussion Paper Series, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=887861 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.887861

Brian M. Lucey (Contact Author)

Trinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin ( email )

The Sutherland Centre, Level 6, Arts Building
Dublin 2
Ireland
+353 1 608 1552 (Phone)
+353 1 679 9503 (Fax)

Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics and Finance ( email )

59C Nguyen D├Čnh Chieu
6th Ward, District 3
Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh 70000
Vietnam

Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics ( email )

South Lushan Road
Nanchang, Jiangxi 330013
China

Xinlei Zhao

Government of the United States of America - Office of the Currency Comptroller - Risk Analysis Division ( email )

250 E Street, SW
Washington, DC 20219
United States

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