Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods

36 Pages Posted: 3 Mar 2006

See all articles by Doug Hostland

Doug Hostland

Government of Canada

Philippe D. Karam

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: December 2005

Abstract

This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number of interrelated factors, including the volatility of output, financial fragility, the endogenous response of the risk premium, and sudden stops in private capital flows. The vulnerability of external debt is sensitive to the determination of the exchange rate and to the pricing of traded goods. We show that fiscal policy can act in a preemptive manner to prevent the debt burden from rising significantly over the medium term. This requires flexibility in fiscal planning, which many emerging market economies lack. Emerging market economies therefore face a difficult trade-off between managing the risk of a debt crisis and pursuing other important fiscal policy objectives.

Keywords: Debt sustainability, risk measures, fiscal rule

JEL Classification: C15, H62, H63

Suggested Citation

Hostland, Doug and Karam, Philippe, Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods (December 2005). IMF Working Paper No. 05/226, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=888095

Doug Hostland (Contact Author)

Government of Canada ( email )

Esplanade Laurier, 18th floor, East Tower
Ottawa K1A 0G5, Ontario K1A 0G5
Canada

Philippe Karam

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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