How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare With Those of Other Industrial Countries?

50 Pages Posted: 3 Mar 2006

See all articles by Martin Mühleisen

Martin Mühleisen

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Stephan Danninger

International Monetary Fund (Research Department)

David Hauner

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - African Department

Kornélia Krajnyák

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Bennett Sutton

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: April 2005

Abstract

This paper compares Canadian central government budget forecasting with forecasting by other industrial countries. While fiscal forecasting in Canada is governed by one of the strongest institutional frameworks, quantitative analysis suggests that budget projections of macroeconomic and fiscal aggregates have been more cautious than in other countries since the mid-1990s. The relatively volatile macroeconomic environment as well as institutional factors, such as Canada&apos's asymmetric deficit target, have likely contributed to this outcome.

Keywords: Budgets, Canada, Economic forecasting, Forecasting models

JEL Classification: C53, H11, H29, H59, H6

Suggested Citation

Muhleisen, Martin and Danninger, Stephan and Hauner, David and Krajnyak, Kornelia and Sutton, Bennett, How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare With Those of Other Industrial Countries? (April 2005). IMF Working Papers, Vol. , pp. 1-49, 2005. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=888112

Martin Muhleisen (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Stephan Danninger

International Monetary Fund (Research Department) ( email )

700 19th Street, NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

David Hauner

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - African Department ( email )

1700 19th Street, NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Kornelia Krajnyak

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Bennett Sutton

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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