Parliament Session Effect on the Indian Stock Markets

XLRI Jamshedpur School of Business Working Paper No. 06-01

22 Pages Posted: 10 Mar 2006 Last revised: 23 Apr 2009

Ram Kumar Kakani

Lal Bahadur Shastri National Academy of Administration (LBSNAA)

Avinash S. Ghalke

XLRI Jamshedpur

Date Written: February 1, 2006

Abstract

The presence of political risk is a worldwide phenomenon that has affected most national stock markets in the twentieth century. Within this context, it is often said that returns of the stock markets are affected by the Parliamentary happenings. Our study is a first examination of a wide range of questions on the relationship between the Parliament sessions and the stock market. Using past 14 years stock market data, we found that stock index returns are significantly lower and volatility is higher when Parliament is in-session as compared to Parliament in-recess. Put another way, using an "out-of-session" investment strategy by investing in BSE Sensex over the last 14 years would have led to growth in portfolio value by over nine times compared to an "in-session" investment strategy. The study concludes by discussing the influence of coalition governments, coalition politics, and gradual weakening of parliament among important factors driving these results.

Keywords: Parliament Session, Political Risk, India, Congress Session, Stock Markets, Market Efficiency

JEL Classification: P16, P26, O16, G14

Suggested Citation

Kakani, Ram Kumar and Ghalke, Avinash S., Parliament Session Effect on the Indian Stock Markets (February 1, 2006). XLRI Jamshedpur School of Business Working Paper No. 06-01. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=889467 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.889467

Ram Kumar Kakani (Contact Author)

Lal Bahadur Shastri National Academy of Administration (LBSNAA) ( email )

Mussorie, Uttarakhand 248179
India

Avinash S. Ghalke

XLRI Jamshedpur ( email )

C H Area (E)
Jamshedpur, Jharkhand 831001
India

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