Inflation Risk and International Asset Returns

46 Pages Posted: 18 Apr 2007 Last revised: 1 May 2010

See all articles by G. A. Moerman

G. A. Moerman

AEGON Asset Management; Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Department of Financial Management

Mathijs A. Van Dijk

Erasmus University - Rotterdam School of Management; Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: September 19, 2009

Abstract

We show that inflation risk is priced in international asset returns. We analyze inflation risk in a framework that encompasses the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) of Adler and Dumas (1983). In contrast to the extant empirical literature on the ICAPM, we relax the assumption that inflation rates are constant. We estimate and test a conditional version of the model for the G5 countries (France, Germany, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S.) over the period 1975-1998 and find evidence of statistically and economically significant prices of inflation risk (in addition to priced nominal exchange rate risk). Our results imply a rejection of the restrictions imposed by the ICAPM. In an extension of our analysis to 2003, we show that even after the termination of nominal exchange rate fluctuations in the euro area in 1999, differences in inflation rates across countries entail non-trivial real exchange rate risk premia.

Keywords: International asset pricing, Inflation risk, Exchange rate risk

JEL Classification: C32, F30, G12

Suggested Citation

Moerman, Gerard A. and Van Dijk, Mathijs A., Inflation Risk and International Asset Returns (September 19, 2009). Journal of Banking and Finance, 34, pp. 840-855, 2010.. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=891709

Gerard A. Moerman (Contact Author)

AEGON Asset Management ( email )

P.O. Box 202
2501 CE The Hague
Netherlands
+31 70 344 8318 (Phone)

Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Department of Financial Management ( email )

P.O. Box 1738
Room T09-53
3000 DR Rotterdam
Netherlands
+31 10 408 2790 (Phone)

Mathijs A. Van Dijk

Erasmus University - Rotterdam School of Management ( email )

P.O. Box 1738
Rotterdam, 3000 DR
Netherlands
+31 10 408 1124 (Phone)
+31 10 408 9017 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://mathijsavandijk.com/

Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM)

P.O. Box 1738
3000 DR Rotterdam
Netherlands

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