The Impact of Antihypertensive Drugs on the Number and Risk of Death, Stroke and Myocardial Infarction in the United States

25 Pages Posted: 14 May 2006 Last revised: 22 Jan 2018

See all articles by Genia Long

Genia Long

Analysis Group, Inc.

David M. Cutler

Harvard University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS)

Ernst R. Berndt

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Jimmy Royer

Analysis Group, Inc.; Université de Sherbrooke - Department of Economics

Andree-Anne Fournier

Analysis Group, Inc.

Alicia Modestino

Northeastern University

Pierre Cremieux

Analysis Group, Inc.

Date Written: March 2006

Abstract

Estimating the value of medical innovation is a continual challenge. In this research, we quantify the impact of antihypertensive therapy on U.S. blood pressures, risk and number of heart attacks, strokes, and deaths. We also consider the potential for further improvements. We estimate the value of innovation using equations relating blood pressure to adverse outcomes from the Framingham Heart Study. Our results show that without antihypertensive therapy, 1999-2000 average blood pressure for the U.S. population age 40 plus would have been 10-13 percent higher. 86,000 excess premature deaths from cardiovascular disease (2001), and 833,000 hospital discharges for stroke and heart attacks (2002) would have occurred. Life expectancy would be 0.5 (men) and 0.4 (women) years lower. At guideline care, there would have been 89,000 fewer premature deaths (2001) and 420,000 fewer hospital discharges for stroke and heart attack (2002) than observed. Our analysis suggests that antihypertensive therapy has had a significant impact on cardiovascular health outcomes but that mortality gains would have been approximately twice as high if guideline care had been achieved for all.

Suggested Citation

Long, Genia and Cutler, David M. and Berndt, Ernst R. and Royer, Jimmy and Fournier, Andree-Anne and Modestino, Alicia and Cremieux, Pierre, The Impact of Antihypertensive Drugs on the Number and Risk of Death, Stroke and Myocardial Infarction in the United States (March 2006). NBER Working Paper No. w12096. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=892121

Genia Long

Analysis Group, Inc. ( email )

111 Huntington Avenue
Tenth Floor
Boston, MA 02199
United States

David M. Cutler (Contact Author)

Harvard University - Department of Economics ( email )

Littauer Center, Room 315A
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
617-496-5216 (Phone)
617-495-8570 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

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617-868-3900 (Phone)
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Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) ( email )

79 John F. Kennedy Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Ernst R. Berndt

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )

Room E52-452
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States
617-253-2665 (Phone)
617-258-6055 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Jimmy Royer

Analysis Group, Inc. ( email )

1000 De La Gauchetiere
Suite 1200
Montreal, Quebec H3B4W5
Canada

Université de Sherbrooke - Department of Economics

Andree-Anne Fournier

Analysis Group, Inc. ( email )

1080 Beaver Hall Hill
Suite 1810
Montreal, Quebec H2Z 1S8
Canada

Alicia Modestino

Northeastern University ( email )

Boston, MA 02115
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.northeastern.edu/cssh/faculty/alicia-sasser-modestino

Pierre Cremieux

Analysis Group, Inc. ( email )

111 Huntington Avenue
10th floor
Boston, MA 02199
United States

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