Determinants of Commercial Banks' Residual Profitability: An Industry Approach

Abstract

This study contrasts the reliability of Abnormal ROE (residual income scaled by beginning-of-period book value of equity) estimates based on value drivers with a contextual approach in the commercial bank industry of the OECD countries. We identify the key theoretical variables from the banking and accounting literature and analyze the impact on the prediction of future abnormal ROEs. After regressing the following year's abnormal ROE on those variables, we verify that some of them, related to the competitiveness of banks and the accounting system, play a determinant role. Our evidence suggests that the identification of 'other information' factors, by a contextual approach, might improve the empirical use of the Ohlson Model in commercial banks, especially when they act in competitive environments and/or relevant intangibles are not captured by accounting.

Keywords: residual income model, abnormal earnings, equity valuation, contextual approach, financial firms

JEL Classification: D4, G12, M4