The Impact of Chinese Exports on Global Import Prices

23 Pages Posted: 8 May 2006

See all articles by Steven B. Kamin

Steven B. Kamin

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Mario Marazzi

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System - Division of International Finance (IFDP)

John W. Schindler

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Abstract

This paper evaluates the evidence bearing on the question of whether China's buoyant export growth has led to significant changes in the import prices, and thus inflation performance, of its trading partners. This evidence suggests that the impact of Chinese exports on global import prices has been, while non- negligible, fairly modest. We identify a statistically significant effect of US imports from China on US import prices, but given the size of this effect and the relatively low share of imports in US GDP, the ultimate impact on US consumer prices has likely been quite small. Moreover, imports from China had little apparent effect on US producer prices. Finally, using a multi-country database of trade transactions, we estimate that, since 1993, Chinese exports lowered annual import inflation in a large set of economies by 0.25 percentage point or less on average.

Suggested Citation

Kamin, Steven B. and Marazzi, Mario and Schindler, John W., The Impact of Chinese Exports on Global Import Prices. Review of International Economics, Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 179-201, May 2006. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=896582 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2006.00569.x

Steven B. Kamin (Contact Author)

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ( email )

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Mario Marazzi

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System - Division of International Finance (IFDP) ( email )

20th St. and Constitution Ave.
Washington, DC 20551
United States
202-452-6489 (Phone)
202-872-4926 (Fax)

John W. Schindler

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ( email )

Washington, DC 20551
United States
202-452-3889 (Phone)

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