Does Turkey Have a Special Trade Relation with the EU? A Gravity Model Approach

Posted: 2 May 2006

See all articles by Stefano Manzocchi

Stefano Manzocchi

Luiss University - Department of Economics and Finance; LUISS University

Daniele Antonucci

Confederation of Italian Industries, Research Department

Abstract

We apply the gravity model to Turkey's trade flows over 1967-2001. First, we check whether this model fits Turkey's geographical pattern of trade in goods. Second, provided that the model works, we assess whether Turkey already has a "special" trade relation with the EU, namely whether merchandise exchanges between the two parties exceed what the gravity approach predicts. The main findings are: i) the gravity model provides a good fit of Turkey's trade patterns; and ii) despite the 1963 Association agreement and the customs union launched in 1996, there is no evidence of additional trade between Turkey and the EU.

Keywords: Gravity equation, Turkey, European Union, International trade

JEL Classification: C23, F14, F15

Suggested Citation

Manzocchi, Stefano and Manzocchi, Stefano and Antonucci, Daniele, Does Turkey Have a Special Trade Relation with the EU? A Gravity Model Approach. Economic Systems, Vol. 30, No. 2, 2006, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=898126

Stefano Manzocchi (Contact Author)

Luiss University - Department of Economics and Finance ( email )

Viale Romania, 32
Rome, 00197
Italy

LUISS University ( email )

Viale Romania, 32
Rome, 00197
Italy

Daniele Antonucci

Confederation of Italian Industries, Research Department ( email )

viale dell'Astronomia, 30
00144, Rome
Italy
+39 06 5903256 (Phone)

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