An Empirical Test of a Neo-Malthusian Theory of Fertility Change
Population and Environment, Vol. 27, No. 4, pp. 327-336, 2006
19 Pages Posted: 25 Apr 2006 Last revised: 16 Jun 2010
Date Written: July 1, 2006
Some neo-Malthusians regard fertility as being kept in check by scarcities and constraints and, conversely, as being raised by economic prosperity. Since out-migration to developed countries and the receipt of food aid from developed countries relax the constraints imposed by a country's carrying capacity, both will have a positive effect on fertility rates in developing countries. Moreover, better economic prospects will also raise fertility, all other things equal. This article provides an empirical test of these hypotheses derived from a neo-Malthusian theory of fertility change. The results fail to confirm the theory and often contradict it.
Keywords: Fertility, Malthusian, food aid, migration, economic prosperity, demographic transition
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