Accuracy of Growth Forecasts for Transition Countries: Assessing Ten Years of Ebrd Forecasting
EBRD Working Paper No. 96
Posted: 24 Apr 2006
Date Written: October 2005
This paper analyzes the accuracy of GDP growth forecasts prepared by the EBRD for 25 transition countries between 1994 and 2004. It finds that EBRD forecasts are mostly unbiased and efficient, and that forecast accuracy has improved as transition has progressed and as the range of data sources have expanded.
Keywords: forecasting, GDP growth, bias and efficiency, transition, EBRD
JEL Classification: C53, D8, E37, P2
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