Accuracy of Growth Forecasts for Transition Countries: Assessing Ten Years of Ebrd Forecasting

EBRD Working Paper No. 96

Posted: 24 Apr 2006

See all articles by Libor Krkoska

Libor Krkoska

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)

Utku Teksoz

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development; University of Greenwich - Business School

Date Written: October 2005

Abstract

This paper analyzes the accuracy of GDP growth forecasts prepared by the EBRD for 25 transition countries between 1994 and 2004. It finds that EBRD forecasts are mostly unbiased and efficient, and that forecast accuracy has improved as transition has progressed and as the range of data sources have expanded.

Keywords: forecasting, GDP growth, bias and efficiency, transition, EBRD

JEL Classification: C53, D8, E37, P2

Suggested Citation

Krkoska, Libor and Teksöz, Utku, Accuracy of Growth Forecasts for Transition Countries: Assessing Ten Years of Ebrd Forecasting (October 2005). EBRD Working Paper No. 96, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=898560

Libor Krkoska (Contact Author)

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) ( email )

One Exchange Square
London, EC2A 2EH
United Kingdom

Utku Teksöz

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

One Exchange Square
London, EC2A 2JN
United Kingdom

University of Greenwich - Business School ( email )

Old Royal Naval College
Park row
London, SE10 9LS
United Kingdom

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