The Halloween Effect in US Sectors
38 Pages Posted: 10 May 2006 Last revised: 18 May 2009
Date Written: May 8, 2006
All US stock market sectors and industries perform better during winter than during summer in our sample from 1926-2005. In more than two-third of all sectors and industries this difference in summer and winter returns, known as the Halloween effect, is statistically significant and in half of all sectors and industries risk premia are negative during summer. However, while all sectors and industries show this effect, there are large differences across sectors and industries. The effect is almost absent in sectors related to consumer consumption but strong in production sectors. We illustrate how these differences between sectors might be used to improve the risk return trade off using sector rotation based on Fidelity sector funds and show how an investor might have benefited from such a trading strategy.
Keywords: Sectors, Industries, Stock Markets, Halloween effect, Sell in May, Sector Rotation
JEL Classification: G10, G11, G12, G14
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation