Alternative Market Access Scenarios in the Agricultural Trade Negotiations of the Doha Round

34 Pages Posted: 19 May 2006

See all articles by Alessandro Antimiani

Alessandro Antimiani

Istituto Nazionale di Economia Agraria (INEA)

Piero Conforti

United Nations (FAO)

Luca Salvatici

Università Roma Tre - Dipartimento di Economia

Date Written: 2006

Abstract

The paper explores an important issue in multilateral agricultural trade negotiations, namely the approach taken to reduce tariffs, simulating possible liberalization scenarios. The analysis is based on the model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), and on the related version 6.0 database. Scenarios are run on a 2013 baseline, built by taking into account a number of events that have affected (and will further affect) world agricultural markets up to that period, focusing on the effects that are specifically attributable to further trade liberalization in the Doha Round. The policy strategies analyzed are two hypothetical liberalization scenarios in terms of market access and export competition, plus a free agricultural trade benchmark scenario. More specifically, in terms of market access we compare proportional cuts in tariffs with a Swiss-formula approach. Over the range of formula parameters considered here, we find that the impacts are not greatly influenced by the extent to which higher tariffs face bigger cuts. Results indicate that welfare gains could be reaped both by developed and developing countries, but only the possibility of inter-country compensations would allow, at least in principle, an agreement to be reached.

Keywords: Commercial Policy, Protection, Trade Negotiations, Agriculture in International Trade

JEL Classification: F13, Q17

Suggested Citation

Antimiani, Alessandro and Conforti, Piero and Salvatici, Luca, Alternative Market Access Scenarios in the Agricultural Trade Negotiations of the Doha Round (2006). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=903288 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.903288

Alessandro Antimiani

Istituto Nazionale di Economia Agraria (INEA) ( email )

Via Barberini, 36 - 00187
Rome
Italy

Piero Conforti

United Nations (FAO) ( email )

Viale delle Terme di Caracalla
Rome, Lazio 00100
ITALY

Luca Salvatici (Contact Author)

Università Roma Tre - Dipartimento di Economia ( email )

Via Ostiense, 159
Roma, RM 00145
Italy
+390657335737 (Phone)

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