Sticking With Your Vote: Cognitive Dissonance and Voting

38 Pages Posted: 24 May 2006

See all articles by Sendhil Mullainathan

Sendhil Mullainathan

Harvard University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Ebonya L. Washington

Yale University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: June 2007

Abstract

In traditional models, votes are an expression of preferences and beliefs. Psychological theories of cognitive dissonance suggest, however, that behavior may shape preferences. In this view, the very act of voting may influence political attitudes. A vote for a candidate may lead to more favorable interpretations of his actions in the future. We test the empirical relevance of cognitive dissonance in US Presidential elections. The key problem in such a test is the endogeneity of voter choice which leads to a mechanical relationship between voting and preferences. We use the voting age restrictions to help surmount this difficulty. We examine the Presidential opinion ratings of nineteen and twenty year olds two years after the President's election. Consistent with cognitive dissonance, we find that twenty year olds (who were eligible to vote in the election) show greater polarization of opinions than comparable nineteen year olds (who were ineligible to vote). We rule out that aging drives these results in two ways. First, we find no polarization differences in years in which twenty and nineteen year olds would not have differed in their eligibility to vote in the prior Presidential election. Second, we show a similar effect when we compare polarization (for all age groups) in opinions of Senators elected during high turnout Presidential campaign years with Senators elected during low turnout non-Presidential campaign years. Thus we find empirical support for the relevance of cognitive dissonance to voting behavior. This finding has at least three implications for the dynamics of voting behavior. First, it offers a new rationale for the incumbency advantage. Second, it suggests that there is an efficiency argument for term limits. And finally, our results demonstrate that efficiency may not be increasing in turnout level.

Keywords: political economy, legislator behavior, gender

JEL Classification: H0, J16, D72

Suggested Citation

Mullainathan, Sendhil and Washington, Ebonya L., Sticking With Your Vote: Cognitive Dissonance and Voting (June 2007). Yale Economic Applications and Policy Discussion Paper No. 14. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=904000

Sendhil Mullainathan

Harvard University - Department of Economics ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

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Ebonya L. Washington (Contact Author)

Yale University - Department of Economics ( email )

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New Haven, CT 06520-8264
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.yale.edu/polisci/people/ewashington.html

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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