Predicting Sales Takeoff for Whirlpool's New Personal Valet

Marketing Science, Vol. 23, No. 2, pp. 180-191, 2004

4 Pages Posted: 31 May 2006

See all articles by Gerard J. Tellis

Gerard J. Tellis

University of Southern California - Marshall School of Business, Department of Marketing

Peter N. Golder

Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business

Joseph A. Foster

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Abstract

The introduction of really new products creates many dilemmas for managers. Initially, they must develop a launch strategy in the face of great uncertainty about the product's potential. After launch, they need guidance about whether to pull the plug on a new product with lackluster sales (prior to takeoff) or persist with a product that could ultimately be a failure. Our results and model of the takeoff in sales of new products provide some guidance on these complex managerial decisions. Prior to our study on sales takeoff, a manager's only recourse to analyzing new product growth would have been diffusion models. However, these models have typically used new product sales beginning at or around the takeoff, have assumed takeoff, and have not explicitly modeled it. In contrast, our model addresses the time from commercialization until takeoff, thus providing insights during the period of greatest uncertainty. Whirlpool Corporation used our model to guide their decision making in the testing and launch of a completely new consumer durable, the Personal Valet.

Keywords: sales takeoff, new product growth, product management, sales forecasting, market response models, innovation

Suggested Citation

Tellis, Gerard J. and Golder, Peter N. and Foster, Joseph A., Predicting Sales Takeoff for Whirlpool's New Personal Valet. Marketing Science, Vol. 23, No. 2, pp. 180-191, 2004, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=905130

Gerard J. Tellis (Contact Author)

University of Southern California - Marshall School of Business, Department of Marketing ( email )

Hoffman Hall 701
Los Angeles, CA 90089-0443
United States
213-740-5031 (Phone)
213-740-7828 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://gtellis.net

Peter N. Golder

Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business ( email )

Hanover, NH 03755
United States

Joseph A. Foster

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

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