The Geography of Output Volatility

60 Pages Posted: 6 Jun 2006

See all articles by Jonathan R.W. Temple

Jonathan R.W. Temple

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Adeel Malik

University of Oxford - Queen Elizabeth House

Date Written: February 2006

Abstract

This paper examines the structural determinants of output volatility in developing countries, and especially the roles of geography and institutions. We investigate the volatility effects of market access, climate variability, the geographic predisposition to trade, and various measures of institutional quality. We find an especially important role for market access: remote countries are more likely to have undiversified exports and to experience greater volatility in output growth. Our results are based on Bayesian methods that allow us to address formally the problem of model uncertainty and to examine robustness across a wide range of specifications.

Keywords: Volatility, geography, institutions, Bayesian model averaging

JEL Classification: E30, O11

Suggested Citation

Temple, Jonathan R.W. and Malik, M. Adeel, The Geography of Output Volatility (February 2006). CEPR Discussion Paper No. 5516. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=906864

Jonathan R.W. Temple (Contact Author)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

M. Adeel Malik

University of Oxford - Queen Elizabeth House ( email )

Oxford
United Kingdom
+44 1865 278849 (Phone)

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