The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study

28 Pages Posted: 13 Jun 2006 Last revised: 24 Apr 2012

See all articles by Andrea Bigano

Andrea Bigano

RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment; CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici; Ca' Foscari University of Venice

Jacqueline M. Hamilton

Forschungsstelle nachhaltige Umweltentwicklung, ZMK, Hamburg University

Richard S. J. Tol

VU University Amsterdam - Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM); Carnegie Mellon University - Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change; University of Hamburg - Centre for Marine and Climate Research (ZMK); Princeton University

Date Written: June 1, 2006

Abstract

We use an updated and extended version of the Hamburg Tourism Model to simulate the effect of development and climate change on tourism. Model extensions are the explicit modelling of domestic tourism and the inclusion of tourist expenditures. We also use the model to examine the impact of sea level rise on tourism demand. Climate change would shift patterns of tourism towards higher altitudes and latitudes. Domestic tourism may double in colder countries and fall by 20% in warmer countries (relative to the baseline without climate change). For some countries international tourism may treble whereas for others it may cut in half. International tourism is more (less) important than is domestic tourism in colder (warmer) places. Therefore, climate change may double tourist expenditures in colder countries, and halve them in warmer countries. In most places, the impact of climate change is small compared to the impact of population and economic growth. The quantitative results are sensitive to parameter choices, but the qualitative pattern is robust.

Keywords: Climate Change, International Tourism, Domestic Tourism

JEL Classification: L83, Q54

Suggested Citation

Bigano, Andrea and Hamilton, Jacqueline M. and Tol, Richard S. J., The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study (June 1, 2006). FEEM Working Paper No. 86.2006, CMCC Research Paper No. 4, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=907454 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.907454

Andrea Bigano (Contact Author)

RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment ( email )

Via Bergognone, 34
Milan, 20144
Italy

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Ca' Foscari University of Venice ( email )

Dorsoduro 3246
Venice, Veneto 30123
Italy

Jacqueline M. Hamilton

Forschungsstelle nachhaltige Umweltentwicklung, ZMK, Hamburg University ( email )

Von-Melle-Park 5
20146 Hamburg
Germany
+49 40 42838 7047 (Phone)
+49 40 42838 7009 (Fax)

Richard S. J. Tol

VU University Amsterdam - Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) ( email )

De Boelelaan 1115
Amsterdam, 1081 HV
Netherlands
+31 20 444 9555 (Phone)
+31 20 444 9553 (Fax)

Carnegie Mellon University - Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change

Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
United States

University of Hamburg - Centre for Marine and Climate Research (ZMK)

Troplowitzstrasse 7
D-22529 Hamburg
Germany

Princeton University ( email )

22 Chambers Street
Princeton, NJ 08544-0708
United States

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