Ten Do it Better, Do They? An Empirical Analysis of an Old Football Myth

18 Pages Posted: 13 Jun 2006

See all articles by Marco Caliendo

Marco Caliendo

University of Potsdam; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Dubravko Radic

University of Wuppertal

Date Written: June 2006

Abstract

In this paper we investigate how the expulsion of a player influences the outcome of a football match. Common sense implies a negative impact for the affected team. However, an old football myth suggests that such an expulsion might also be beneficial since it increases the team spirit as well as the efforts of the affected team. We make use of a unique dataset containing all games played in a World Cup Championship between 1930 and 2002 and follow a twofold econometric strategy: We start with a conditional maximum likelihood estimator which is independent of the relative strength of the teams before we extend this estimator to take the relative strength of the teams and the minute of the expulsion into account. Our results indicate that the scoring intensities of both teams do not differ after the expulsion. Conducting scenario analysis reveals that the impact of a red card depends on the minute of the expulsion and does not have an impact at all if given at the end of the first half or later.

Keywords: Poisson process, (un)conditional likelihood, football, red card effect

JEL Classification: C40, Z00

Suggested Citation

Caliendo, Marco and Radic, Dubravko, Ten Do it Better, Do They? An Empirical Analysis of an Old Football Myth (June 2006). IZA Discussion Paper No. 2158, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=908250

Marco Caliendo (Contact Author)

University of Potsdam ( email )

August-Bebel Strasse 89
Potsdam, 14482
Germany
+49(0)331/9773225 (Phone)
+49(0)331/9773210 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.uni-potsdam.de/en/empwifo/news.html

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Dubravko Radic

University of Wuppertal ( email )

Gaußstraße 20
42097 Wuppertal
Germany

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
250
Abstract Views
1,282
rank
136,989
PlumX Metrics