Is There Long-Run Convergence of Regional House Prices in the UK?
Motu Working Paper No. 05-11
22 Pages Posted: 26 Jun 2006
Date Written: August 2005
This paper investigates the long-run convergence of regional house prices in the UK. Using a variety of econometric methods, existing studies have failed to reach a consensus on whether or not regional house prices are cointegrated and exhibit long-run constancy relative to each other. We propose the application of a new test that combines principal components analysis with unit root testing to throw new light on the regional convergence debate. Using mix-adjusted quarterly house price data for 1973-2005, we find that existing unit root and cointegration methodologies indicate the presence of multiple stochastic trends with, at best, very weak evidence of long-run convergence. However, testing for the stationarity of the largest principal component based on regional house price differentials suggests that all UK regional house prices are driven by a single common stochastic trend and can be regarded as exhibiting strong convergence in the long-run. Further analysis suggests there is a high degree of persistence in regional house price differentials.
Keywords: House prices, convergence, unit roots, cointegration, principal components
JEL Classification: C5, R0
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation