GM Cotton Adoption, Recent and Prospective: A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts

31 Pages Posted: 27 Jun 2006

See all articles by Kym Anderson

Kym Anderson

University of Adelaide - Centre for International Economic Studies (CIES); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Australian National University

Lee Ann Jackson

World Trade Organization (WTO)

Ernesto Valenzuela

Federation University Australia

Date Written: March 2006

Abstract

This paper provides estimates of the economic impact of initial adoption of genetically modified (GM) cotton and of its potential impacts beyond the few countries where it is currently common. Use is made of the latest version of the GTAP database and model. Our results suggest that by following the lead of China and South Africa, adoption of GM cotton varieties by other developing countries - especially in Sub-Saharan Africa - could provide even larger proportionate gains to farmer and national welfare than in those first-adopting countries. Furthermore, those estimated gains are shown to exceed those from a successful campaign under the WTO's Doha Development Agenda to reduce/remove cotton subsidies and import tariffs globally.

Keywords: GMOs, cotton biotechnology, computable general equilibrium modeling, economic welfare, subsidy, tariff reform

JEL Classification: D58, F17, Q16, Q17

Suggested Citation

Anderson, Kym and Jackson, Lee Ann and Valenzuela, Ernesto, GM Cotton Adoption, Recent and Prospective: A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts (March 2006). CEPR Discussion Paper No. 5568, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=912471

Kym Anderson (Contact Author)

University of Adelaide - Centre for International Economic Studies (CIES) ( email )

School of Economics
Adelaide SA 5005
Australia
+61 8 8313 4712 (Phone)
+61 8 8223 1460 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Australian National University ( email )

Arndt-Corden Dept of Economics
Coombs Building
Canberra, AK ACT 2600
Australia
+61 8 8313 4712 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://publicpolicy.anu.edu.au/crawford_people/content/staff/acde/kanderson.php

Lee Ann Jackson

World Trade Organization (WTO) ( email )

154 Rue de Lausanne
CH-1211 Geneva 21
Switzerland
41 22 739 6907 (Phone)
41 22 739 5760 (Fax)

Ernesto Valenzuela

Federation University Australia ( email )

100 Clyde Rd
Berwick, Victoria 3806
Australia

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