The Global Chilling Effects of Antidumping Proliferation

38 Pages Posted: 29 Jun 2006

See all articles by Hylke Vandenbussche

Hylke Vandenbussche

Catholic University of Leuven (KUL), CEPR

Maurizio Zanardi

University of Surrey - School of Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: April 2006


Advocates of antidumping (AD) laws downplay their effects by arguing that the trade flows that are subject to AD are small and their distortions negligible. This paper is the first to counter that notion by quantifying the worldwide effect of AD laws on aggregate trade flows. The recent proliferation of AD laws across countries provides us with a natural experiment to estimate the trade effects of adopting versus using AD laws; differences in the intensity of use among countries with older AD laws allow us to investigate reputation effects. For this purpose, we estimate worldwide trade flows using a gravity equation spanning 21 years (1980-2000) of annual observations. Our estimates confirm that AD effects are not small. Among other findings, new tough users have their aggregate imports depressed by US $15.7bn a year (or 6.7%) as a result of the AD measures they have imposed. For a traditional user like the United States, current AD measures depress annual imports by almost US $20bn on top of the cumulative negative effect of reputation. For some countries, the dampening effects of AD laws on trade flows are found to nearly offset the gains from trade liberalization.

Keywords: Antidumping, gravity equation, trade liberalization, trade flows

JEL Classification: F13, F14

Suggested Citation

Vandenbussche, Hylke and Zanardi, Maurizio, The Global Chilling Effects of Antidumping Proliferation (April 2006). CEPR Discussion Paper No. 5597, Available at SSRN:

Hylke Vandenbussche (Contact Author)

Catholic University of Leuven (KUL), CEPR ( email )

Faculty of Economics
Naamsestraat 69
B-3000 Leuven, 3000
+32 16 326 920 (Phone)
+32 16 326 732 (Fax)


Maurizio Zanardi

University of Surrey - School of Economics ( email )

Guildford, Surrey GU2 7XH
United Kingdom

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