Index Methods for Forecasting: An Application to the American Presidential Elections

4 Pages Posted: 30 Jun 2014

See all articles by J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Alfred G. Cuzan

University of West Florida

Abstract

Scott Armstrong and Alfred Cuzan describe Allan Lichtman's Keys Model as an example of an index method of forecasting, which assigns ratings of favorable, unfavorable, or indeterminate to influencing variables. They describe how index methods have been applied in other decision-making contexts, and they discuss when such methods might be useful analytical tools for business forecasters. In the context of presidential election forecasting, they compare the keys model to several regression models and find that it stacks up quite well against these more sophisticated alternatives.

JEL Classification: COO, C2

Suggested Citation

Armstrong, J. Scott and Cuzan, Alfred G., Index Methods for Forecasting: An Application to the American Presidential Elections. FORESIGHT: International Journal of Applied Forecasting, No. 3, pp. 10-13, February 2006. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=913015

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

Alfred G. Cuzan

University of West Florida ( email )

11000 University Parkway
Pensacola, FL 32514-5750
United States

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