Growth, cycles, and stabilization policy
University of Manchester - School of Social Sciences
Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 57, Issue 2, pp. 262-282, 2005
This paper presents an analysis of the joint determination of growth and business cycles with the view to studying the long-run implications of short-term monetary stabilization policy. The analysis is based on a simple stochastic growth model in which both real and nominal shocks have permanent effects on output due to nominal rigidities (wage contracts) and an endogenous technology (learning-by-doing). It is shown that there is a negative correlation between the mean and variance of output growth irrespective of the source of fluctuations. It is also shown that, in spite of this, there may exist a conflict between short-term stabilization and long-term growth depending on the type of disturbance. Finally, it is shown that, from a welfare perspective, the optimal monetary policy is that policy which maximizes long-run growth to the exclusion of stabilization considerations.
JEL Classification: E32; E52; O42
Date posted: February 29, 2008