33 Pages Posted: 31 Jul 2006
Przeworski, Alvarez, Cheibub, and Limongi (2000) challenge the key hypothesis in modernization theory: political regimes do not transition to democracy as per capita incomes rise, they argue. Rather, democratic transitions occur randomly, but once there, countries with higher levels of GDP per capita remain democratic. We retest the modernization hypothesis using new data, new techniques, and a three-way rather than dichotomous classification of regimes. Contrary to Przeworski et. al. (2000) we find that the modernization hypothesis stands up well. We also find that partial democracies emerge as among the most important and least understood regime types.
Keywords: development, modernization, polical economy
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Epstein, David and Bates, Robert and Goldstone, Jack A. and Kristensen, Ida and O'Halloran, Sharyn, Democratic Transitions. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=920180 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.920180