Business Cycles, the Exchange Rate, and Demand for Antidumping Protection in Mexico

12 Pages Posted: 15 Jan 2007

See all articles by Gunnar Niels

Gunnar Niels

Oxford Economic Research Associates (OXERA) Consulting Ltd.

Joseph F. Francois

University of Bern - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Vienna Institute of International Economic Studies (WIIW); University of Adelaide - School of Economics

Abstract

Antidumping actions in the US and EU are known to be linked to macroeconomic conditions. In part, this is because positive injury findings may be easier to make in a downturn, increasing the chance of success for complainants. We explore the evidence for Mexico, one of the main "new" antidumping regimes. Injury determination is also critical in Mexicos antidumping policy, as a majority of unsuccessful complaints have been rejected because of negative injury findings rather than negative findings of dumping. Working with data from 1987 to 2000, we provide evidence for a relationship between macroeconomic factors and antidumping complaints, including current account and exchange rate movements, and both local and global general macroeconomic conditions.

Suggested Citation

Niels, Gunnar and Francois, Joseph F, Business Cycles, the Exchange Rate, and Demand for Antidumping Protection in Mexico. Review of Development Economics, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 388-399, August 2006. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=920539 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2006.00339.x

Gunnar Niels (Contact Author)

Oxford Economic Research Associates (OXERA) Consulting Ltd. ( email )

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Oxford OX1 1JD
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+44 (0) 1865 253 000 (Phone)
+44 (0) 1865 251 172 (Fax)

Joseph F Francois

University of Bern - Department of Economics ( email )

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Bern, CH-3001
Switzerland

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Vienna Institute of International Economic Studies (WIIW) ( email )

Oppolzergasse 6
A-1010 Vienna
Austria

University of Adelaide - School of Economics ( email )

Adelaide SA, 5005
Australia
+61 8 8303 5540 (Phone)
+61 8 8223 1460 (Fax)

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