The Macroeconomic Effects of a Pandemic in Europe - A Model-Based Assessment

21 Pages Posted: 3 Aug 2006  

Lars Jonung

Lund University - Dept. of Economics

Werner Roeger

European Commission, DGECFIN

Date Written: June 2006

Abstract

This report estimates possible macroeconomic effects of a pandemic taking place in the EU in 2006, using a quarterly macroeconomic model. The macroeconomic costs of a pandemic, that is the cost in terms of production lost due to illness and death measured as reductions in GDP growth and/or declines in the level of GDP, are quantified in various pandemic scenarios. We focus on two sectors of the European economy that are expected to be particularly severely hit, tourism and trade. The results are compared with those obtained in similar studies for the United States and Canada. Our basic conclusion is that, although a pandemic would take a huge toll in human suffering, it would most likely not be a severe threat to the European macroeconomy.

Keywords: Pandemics, avian flu, Spanish influenza, Europe, EU

JEL Classification: C5, E13, I12

Suggested Citation

Jonung, Lars and Roeger, Werner, The Macroeconomic Effects of a Pandemic in Europe - A Model-Based Assessment (June 2006). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=920851 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.920851

Lars Jonung (Contact Author)

Lund University - Dept. of Economics ( email )

Box 7080
Lund, 22007
Sweden

Werner Roeger

European Commission, DGECFIN ( email )

Economic and Financial Affairs
BU1-3/159, 200 Rue de la Loi
B-1049 Brussels
Belgium

Paper statistics

Downloads
240
Rank
101,169
Abstract Views
1,396