Forecasting Investment Needs in South Africa's Electricity and Telecommunications Sectors

Abstract

The authors use a panel-data set for the period 1980-2002 to estimate demand for electricity and telecommunications services and project investment needs in South Africa through 2010 for two growth scenarios. Projections of average annual investment needs in electricity and telecommunications for the current growth scenario (3.6 percent a year) are of the order of 0.2 percent and 0.75 percent of GDP, respectively. An alternative, accelerated growth scenario (6 percent a year) implies approximate doubling of investment needs in these sectors.

Keywords: Economic Theory & Research, Investment and Investment Climate, Banks & Banking Reform, Pro-Poor Growth and Inequality, ICT Policy and Strategies