Linking Public Investment Programs and SPAHD Macro Models: Methodology and Application to Aid Requirements

31 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Pierre-Richard Agenor

Pierre-Richard Agenor

University of Manchester - School of Social Sciences

Nihal Bayraktar

Pennsylvania State University - School of Business Administration; World Bank

Emmanuel Pinto Moreira

World Bank

Date Written: June 1, 2006

Abstract

The authors propose a bottom up approach to link public investment programs with a class of macro models recently developed to quantify Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD) in low-income countries. The methodology involves establishing constant-price projections of investment outlays (disaggregated into infrastructure, education, and health), spending on maintenance and other goods and services, salaries, and user charges. These estimates are incorporated in a SPAHD macro framework to calculate, under alternative scenarios, domestic financing, foreign borrowing, and aid requirements. The authors also evaluate the impact on growth and indicators associated with the Millennium Development Goals. They use illustrative applications, based on a SPAHD model for Niger, to highlight the link between tax reform and aid requirements.

Keywords: Public Sector Economics & Finance, Economic Theory & Research, Public Sector Expenditure Analysis & Management, Investment and Investment Climate, Population Policies

Suggested Citation

Agenor, Pierre-Richard and Bayraktar, Nihal and Moreira, Emmanuel Pinto, Linking Public Investment Programs and SPAHD Macro Models: Methodology and Application to Aid Requirements (June 1, 2006). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3944. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=923251

Pierre-Richard Agenor (Contact Author)

University of Manchester - School of Social Sciences ( email )

Oxford Road
Manchester, M13 9PL
United Kingdom

Nihal Bayraktar

Pennsylvania State University - School of Business Administration ( email )

777 West Harrisburg Pike
Middletown, PA 17057-4898
United States
+1 717 948 6142 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.personal.psu.edu/nxb23/

World Bank

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Emmanuel Pinto Moreira

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

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