How Reliable are Hog Futures as Forecasts?

Posted: 16 Aug 2006

See all articles by Colin A. Carter

Colin A. Carter

University of California, Davis - Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics

Sandeep Mohapatra

University of Alberta - Faculty of Agriculture, Forestry & Home Economics - Department of Rural Economy

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: June 2006

Abstract

The CME hog futures contract was revamped in 1997 and it is one of the largest futures markets for a nonstorable commodity. The literature is divided on whether or not futures prices for nonstorables provide reliable forecasts of cash prices. Using a time series econometric approach we find that from 1998-2004 the hog futures market was a good and unbiased predictor of cash prices.

Suggested Citation

Carter, Colin A. and Mohapatra, Sandeep, How Reliable are Hog Futures as Forecasts? (June 2006). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=924509

Colin A. Carter

University of California, Davis - Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics ( email )

One Shields Avenue
Davis, CA 95616
United States

Sandeep Mohapatra (Contact Author)

University of Alberta - Faculty of Agriculture, Forestry & Home Economics - Department of Rural Economy ( email )

Edmonton, Alberta
Canada

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