Trade Openness and Volatility

Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano Development Studies Working Paper No. 219

42 Pages Posted: 29 Aug 2006

See all articles by Julian di Giovanni

Julian di Giovanni

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Department of Economics and Business; Barcelona Graduate School of Economics (Barcelona GSE); CREI and Universitat Pompeu Fabra; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Andrei A. Levchenko

University of Michigan - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: July 2006

Abstract

This paper examines the mechanisms through which trade openness affects output volatility using an industry-level panel dataset of manufacturing production and trade. The main results are threefold. First, sectors more open to international trade are more volatile. Second, trade leads to increased specialization. These two forces act to increase aggregate volatility. Third, sectors which are more open to trade are less correlated with the rest of the economy, an effect that acts to reduce overall volatility. The point estimates indicate that each of the three effects has an appreciable impact on aggregate volatility. Added together they imply that the overall effect of trade openness on overall volatility is positive and economically significant. This impact also varies a great deal with country characteristics. We estimate that the same increase in openness raises aggregate volatility five times more in developing countries compared to developed ones. Finally, we find that the marginal impact of openness on volatility roughly doubled in the last thirty years, implying that trade exerts a larger influence on volatility over time.

Keywords: Trade, Output Volatility, Specialization, Comovement, Sector-Level Data

JEL Classification: F15, F40

Suggested Citation

di Giovanni, Julian and Levchenko, Andrei A., Trade Openness and Volatility (July 2006). Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano Development Studies Working Paper No. 219, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=927300 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.927300

Julian Di Giovanni

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York ( email )

33 Liberty Street
New York, NY 10045
United States

HOME PAGE: http://julian.digiovanni.ca

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Department of Economics and Business ( email )

Barcelona
Spain

HOME PAGE: http://julian.digiovanni.ca

Barcelona Graduate School of Economics (Barcelona GSE) ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas, 25-27
Barcelona, Barcelona 08005
Spain

HOME PAGE: http://julian.digiovanni.ca

CREI and Universitat Pompeu Fabra ( email )

HOME PAGE: http://julian.digiovanni.ca

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://julian.digiovanni.ca

Andrei A. Levchenko (Contact Author)

University of Michigan - Department of Economics ( email )

611 Tappan Street
Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1220
United States

HOME PAGE: http://alevchenko.com

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

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