Measuring Retirement Income Adequacy: Calculating Realistic Income Replacement Rates

Abstract

A key weakness of many retirement income models is that they use average estimates for life expectancy, and, consequently, provide workers with only a 50 percent chance of having adequate income in retirement. The Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) has developed a new model - the EBRI/ERF Retirement Security Projection Model® (RSPM) - that incorporates a wide range of data in order to produce a far more inclusive and refined projection of likely retirement income. In projecting retirement income needs, the new EBRI model incorporates three of the most critically important, but difficult-to-model, retirement risks: investment risk, or how individuals' assets will perform during retirement; longevity risk, or how long an individual expects to live; and catastrophic health care costs, which have the potential to wipe out retirement savings. The EBRI model finds that the amount of money Americans will need for an adequate retirement varies widely based on individual factors and often is substantially higher than previously estimated. This paper presents the results obtained by utilizing the concepts already adopted by RSPM for the entire population of certain age cohorts and applying them to stylized examples. These results will provide useful information for individuals attempting to include such crucial factors as longevity, investment, and health care risk into their retirement planning process.

This paper is the second of a two-part series measuring retirement income adequacy. A "Part 1" paper by EBRI (VanDerhei, EBRI Notes, September 2004) reviewed how replacement rates have traditionally been used to establish minimum targets for future retirees by calculating the amount needed to provide the same amount of after-tax income in retirement as that received prior to retirement after adjusting for differences in savings, age, and work-related expenses.

Keywords: Income replacement rate, Retirement income, Retirement planning

JEL Classification: D31, D91, J14