Valoraciones de Amazon, Terra y empresas de Internet (Valuations of Amazon, Terra and Internet Companies)

Abstract

Spanish Abstract: Las burbujas especulativas no son un fenómeno nuevo. Se mencionan varias burbujas históricas (el ferrocarril, las autopistas, las líneas aéreas, la radio, la televisión, el teléfono, Levitz, Home Shopping Network, OM Scott, MCI, LTCM, Boston Chicken, TelePizza…).

Se analiza la evolución de algunas empresas (Terra, Amazon, America Online, Microsoft, Yahoo, empresas de B2B, brokers online,…), pero nos centramos en la valoraciones de Terra (llegó a ser la segunda empresa española por capitalización tras Telefónica) y Amazon.

English Abstract: In this paper, we review twelve valuations of Terra performed by Spanish and non-Spanish bank analysts and brokers.

Terra started trading on the stock market in November 1999. The placement price was 13 euros per share (11.81 for retailers). In February 2000, its price stood at 139.75 euros. Between November 1999 and February 2000, Terra provided a return of 975% for its shareholders. However, by December 2000, the share price had plummeted to 11.6 euros, 8.3% of its February high. The average annual volatility of the Terra share was almost 100%.

If you can't find a rational explanation for a share to continue rising, you can be sure that it will fall. To become a millionaire, you must sell your shares at the right time. A website is not necessarily a business. Selling below cost gets you lots of customers, but not much money.

Note: Downloadable document is in Spanish.

Keywords: Internet, Valuation, Internet valuation

JEL Classification: G12, G31, M21