Banks' Riskiness Over the Business Cycle: A Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries

Abstract

Supervisors and policy makers pay increasing attention to the possible procyclical nature of banks' behaviour. Indeed, to guarantee macro and financial stability, it is important to understand whether, and to what extent, banks are affected by the macroeconomy and second round effects occur. This paper provides a comprehensive investigation of these issues using a large dataset of Italian intermediaries over the period 1985-2002. In particular, estimating both static and dynamic models, it investigates whether loan loss provisions and non-performing loans show a cyclical pattern. The estimated relations may be employed to carry out stress tests to assess the effects of macroeconomic shocks on banks' balance sheets.

Keywords: procyclicality, banks, loan loss provisions, non-performing loans, business cycle

JEL Classification: E30, E32, E44, G28