Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed Since the Early 1980s?

McConnell, Margaret Mary; Perez-Quiros, Gabriel

doi:10.2139/ssrn.938810

Download This Paper

Open PDF in Browser

Add Paper to My Library

Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed Since the Early 1980s?

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 41

34 Pages Posted: 20 Oct 2006

See all articles by Margaret Mary McConnell

We document a structural break in the volatility of U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 1984, and provide evidence that this break emanates from a reduction in the volatility of durable goods production. We find no evidence of increased stability in the nondurables, services or structures sectors of the economy. In addition, no other G7 country experienced a contemporaneous reduction in output volatility. Finally, we show that the reduction in durables volatility corresponds to a decline in the share of durable goods accounted for by inventories.

JEL Classification: E32, C22

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

McConnell, Margaret (Meg) Mary and Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed Since the Early 1980s? (June 1998). FRB of New York Staff Report No. 41, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=938810 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.938810