Influence of Distributional Shape of Substance Parameters on Exposure Model Output

9 Pages Posted: 7 Nov 2006

See all articles by Kai Lessmann

Kai Lessmann

Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research

Andreas Beyer

European Central Bank (ECB)

Jörg Klasmeier

University of Osnabruck - Institute of Environmental Systems Research

Michael Matthies

University of Osnabruck - Institute of Environmental Systems Research

Abstract

Uncertainty of environmental concentrations is calculated with the regional multimedia exposure model of EUSES 1.0 by considering probability input distributions for aqueous solubility, vapor pressure, and octanol-water partition coefficient, K(ow). Only reliable experimentally determined data are selected from available literature for eight reference chemicals representing a wide substance property spectrum. Monte Carlo simulations are performed with uniform, triangular, and log-normal input distributions to assess the influence of the choice of input distribution type on the predicted concentration distributions. The impact of input distribution shapes on output variance exceeds the effect on the output mean by one order of magnitude. Both are affected by influence and uncertainty (i.e., variance) of the input variable as well. Distributional shape has no influence when the sensitivity function of the respective parameter is perfectly linear. For nonlinear relationships, overlap of probability mass of input distribution with influential ranges of the parameter space is important. Differences in computed output distribution are greatest when input distributions differ in the most influential parameter range.

Suggested Citation

Lessmann, Kai and Beyer, Andreas and Klasmeier, Jörg and Matthies, Michael, Influence of Distributional Shape of Substance Parameters on Exposure Model Output. Risk Analysis, Vol. 25, No. 5, pp. 1137-1145, October 2005, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=943154 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00669.x

Kai Lessmann

Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research ( email )

HOME PAGE: http://https://pik-potsdam.de/members/lessmann

Andreas Beyer

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Eurotower
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Jörg Klasmeier

University of Osnabruck - Institute of Environmental Systems Research ( email )

Neuer Graben
Osnabrück, 49074
Germany

Michael Matthies (Contact Author)

University of Osnabruck - Institute of Environmental Systems Research ( email )

Neuer Graben
Osnabrück, 49074
Germany
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++49-(0)541-969-2599 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.usf.Uni-Osnabrueck.DE

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