Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework

29 Pages Posted: 10 Nov 2006

See all articles by Pierre-Richard Agenor

Pierre-Richard Agenor

University of Manchester - School of Social Sciences

Nihal Bayraktar

Pennsylvania State University - School of Business Administration; World Bank

Emmanuel Pinto Moreira

World Bank

Karim El Aynaoui

World Bank

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Abstract

This paper presents a macroeconomic approach to monitoring progress toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Sub-Saharan Africa. At the heart of our framework is a macro model which captures key linkages between foreign aid, public investment (disaggregated into education, infrastructure and health), the supply side and poverty. The model is then linked through cross-country regressions to indicators of malnutrition, infant mortality, life expectancy and access to safe water. A composite MDG Indicator is also calculated. The functioning of our framework is illustrated by simulating the impact of an increase in foreign aid to Niger at the MDG horizon of 2015, under alternative assumptions about the degree of efficiency of public investment. Our approach can serve as the building block for Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD), a more encompassing concept than the current Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers.

Suggested Citation

Agenor, Pierre-Richard and Bayraktar, Nihal and Moreira, Emmanuel Pinto and El Aynaoui, Karim, Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework. The World Economy, Vol. 29, No. 11, pp. 1519-1547, November 2006. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=943845 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2006.00853.x

Pierre-Richard Agenor (Contact Author)

University of Manchester - School of Social Sciences ( email )

Oxford Road
Manchester, M13 9PL
United Kingdom

Nihal Bayraktar

Pennsylvania State University - School of Business Administration ( email )

777 West Harrisburg Pike
Middletown, PA 17057-4898
United States
+1 717 948 6142 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.personal.psu.edu/nxb23/

World Bank

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Emmanuel Pinto Moreira

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Karim El Aynaoui

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

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