When Do Purchase Intentions Predict Sales?

47 Pages Posted: 21 Nov 2006

See all articles by Vicki Morwitz

Vicki Morwitz

New York University (NYU) - Department of Marketing

Joel Steckel

New York University (NYU) - Department of Marketing

Alok Gupta

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: July 12, 2006

Abstract

Marketing managers routinely use purchase intentions to predict sales. The purpose of this paper is to identify factors associated with an increased or decreased correlation between purchase intentions and actual purchasing. In two studies, we examine data collected from a wide range of different settings that reflect the real world diversity in how intentions studies are conducted. The results indicate that intentions are more correlated with purchase: 1) for existing products than for new ones, 2) for durable goods than for non-durable goods, 3) for short than for long time horizons, 4) when respondents are asked to provide intentions to purchase specific brands or models than when they are asked to provide intentions to buy at the product category level, 5) when purchase is measured in terms of trial rates than when it is measured in terms of total market sales, and 6) when purchase intentions are collected in a comparative mode than when they are collected monadically.

Keywords: Purchase intentions, Sales Forecasting, Meta-Analysis, Marketing Research

Suggested Citation

Morwitz, Vicki and Steckel, Joel and Gupta, Alok, When Do Purchase Intentions Predict Sales? (July 12, 2006). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=946194 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.946194

Vicki Morwitz (Contact Author)

New York University (NYU) - Department of Marketing ( email )

Henry Kaufman Ctr
44 W 4 St.
New York, NY
United States

Joel Steckel

New York University (NYU) - Department of Marketing ( email )

Tisch Hall
40 W 4 St.
New York, NY 10012
United States
2129980521 (Phone)

Alok Gupta

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

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