Can One Predict Next Year's Winning Percentage Using Ols Regression on Baseball Statistics?

22 Pages Posted: 11 Dec 2006

See all articles by David Abuaf

David Abuaf

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business; Corbin Capital Partners, L.P.; University of Chicago

Tony Y. Chen

University of Chicago GSB

Alexander Trifunac

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business

Date Written: December 2006

Abstract

As part of a project for the University of Chicago GSB MBA program, we created a regression model to predict a baseball team's winning percentage using aggregate team statistics from the prior year. If we could judge our results on the same metrics as baseball players, our result would prove successful (in-sample R2=27%) - we batted .270. However, statistically speaking, the result of our regression indicates it is extremely difficult to predict - by more than 27% of the variance - next year's winning percentage for a baseball team. However, when assessing our model's validity by the standard deviation of predicted results vs. actual results, our model is proves to be at least marginally useful. In the following paper we will discuss how we came up with the metrics we used, what tests we performed to better account for predicting in-sample variance, and our conclusion.

Suggested Citation

Abuaf, David N. and Chen, Tony Y. and Trifunac, Alexander, Can One Predict Next Year's Winning Percentage Using Ols Regression on Baseball Statistics? (December 2006). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=949651 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.949651

David N. Abuaf (Contact Author)

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business ( email )

5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

Corbin Capital Partners, L.P. ( email )

9 West 57th Street, 25th floor
New York, NY 10019
United States
212 634 7352 (Phone)
212 634 7399 (Fax)

University of Chicago ( email )

1101 East 58th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

Tony Y. Chen

University of Chicago GSB ( email )

5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

Alexander Trifunac

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business ( email )

5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

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