Terms of Trade Shocks in an Intertemporal Model: Should We Worry About the Dutch Disease or Excessive Borrowing?

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of terms of trade and risk-premium shocks on a small open economy in an intertemporal, Dutch disease model, with international capital mobility. It is shown that when the economy experiences a permanent improvement in the terms of trade, the Dutch disease effect (real exchange rate appreciation) goes away in the new steady state, while the economy experiences de-industrialization even stronger than in the short-run. Second, a permanent improvement in the terms of trade coupled with a permanent reduction in the risk-premium leads to pro-industrialization and a real exchange rate appreciation. The mechanism behind appreciation of the real exchange rate in the long-run is different from the Dutch disease story. It occurs because reduction in the risk-premium reduces the costs of the production in the economy, and because (non-oil) traded sector benefits more from cheaper capital than the non-traded sector. The economy also accumulates more debt in response to these two shocks in the long-run.

Keywords: Capital inflows, Dutch disease, external debt, optimizing models, overborrowing, real exchange rate

JEL Classification: E44, F32, F34, F41