A Random Walk Down Main Street: Can Experts Predict Returns on Commercial Real Estate?

18 Pages Posted: 26 Dec 2006

See all articles by David C. Ling

David C. Ling

University of Florida - Warrington College of Business Administration

Abstract

This study examines the ability of experts, specifically institutional owners and managers, to predict commercial real estate return performance in major metropolitan markets and on various property types. The findings indicate that the consensus opinions on investment conditions contained in Real Estate Research Corporation's quarterly Real Estate Investment Survey are useful in forecasting subsequent return performance. In fact, the findings document that RERC's surveys are backward looking. The implications of these findings for investors are discussed.

Keywords: commercial, Real Estate Investment Survey, forecasting, return performance

JEL Classification: C42, C53, E31, G12, L85, R11, R12

Suggested Citation

Ling, David Curtis, A Random Walk Down Main Street: Can Experts Predict Returns on Commercial Real Estate?. Journal of Real Estate Research, Vol. 27, No. 2, 2005, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=953675

David Curtis Ling (Contact Author)

University of Florida - Warrington College of Business Administration ( email )

P.O. Box 117168
Gainesville, FL 32611
United States
352-392-9307 (Phone)
352-392-0301 (Fax)

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