A Random Walk Down Main Street: Can Experts Predict Returns on Commercial Real Estate?

Abstract

This study examines the ability of experts, specifically institutional owners and managers, to predict commercial real estate return performance in major metropolitan markets and on various property types. The findings indicate that the consensus opinions on investment conditions contained in Real Estate Research Corporation's quarterly Real Estate Investment Survey are useful in forecasting subsequent return performance. In fact, the findings document that RERC's surveys are backward looking. The implications of these findings for investors are discussed.

Keywords: commercial, Real Estate Investment Survey, forecasting, return performance

JEL Classification: C42, C53, E31, G12, L85, R11, R12