36 Pages Posted: 12 Jan 2007
Date Written: Janurary 2007
This paper uses the standard one-sector neoclassical growth model to investigate why China's consumption has been low and investment high. It finds that the low cost of capital has been quantitatively an important factor. Theory predicts that the price of capital may have been significantly distorted in the 1990s and 2000s. The distortion could have been caused by nonperforming loans, borrowing constraints, and uncertainty over changes in government guidance in bank lending. If China is to rebalance growth towards relying more on consumption and less on exports and investment, banking sector reforms and financial market development could, therefore, turn out to be key.
Keywords: Economic growth, China, Economic policy, Bank reforms, Financial sector, Capital markets, Capital, Consumption, Investment, Exports, Economic models
JEL Classification: E21, E22, O4, O53
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Aziz, Jahangir, Rebalancing China's Economy: What Does Growth Theory Tell Us? (Janurary 2007). IMF Working Paper No. 06/291. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=956755