Health Information and Subjective Survival Probability: Evidence from Taiwan

38 Pages Posted: 24 Jan 2007 Last revised: 27 Aug 2010

See all articles by Jin‐Tan Liu

Jin‐Tan Liu

National Taiwan University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Meng-Wen Tsou

Tamkang University - Department of International Trade

James K. Hammitt

Harvard University

Date Written: January 2007

Abstract

The effect of new health information on individuals' expectations about their longevity is examined using a Bayesian learning model. Using two-period panel-structured survey data from Taiwan, we find that subjective probabilities of living to age 75 and 85 are significantly smaller for respondents with more abnormal medical test outcomes and for those receiving more extensive advice on health behavior from their physicians. The subjective probability of survival declines with health shocks such as developing heart disease. Using pooled cross-sectional data, we find that males and married persons are more optimistic about their longevity expectations than females and single persons, and that income is strongly correlated with the subjective probability of living to age 75. Consistent with previous studies, the longevity of the same-sex parent is strongly associated with an individual's own expectation of living to age 75.

Suggested Citation

Liu, Jin-Tan and Tsou, Meng-Wen and Hammitt, James K., Health Information and Subjective Survival Probability: Evidence from Taiwan (January 2007). NBER Working Paper No. w12864. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=959138

Jin-Tan Liu (Contact Author)

National Taiwan University - Department of Economics ( email )

21 Hsu-Chow Road
Taipei, 10020
Taiwan

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Meng-Wen Tsou

Tamkang University - Department of International Trade

Taiwan, 25137
China

James K. Hammitt

Harvard University ( email )

718 Huntington Avenue
Boston, MA 02115
United States
617-432-4343 (Phone)
617-432-0190 (Fax)

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
32
Abstract Views
522
PlumX Metrics