The Future Trajectory of U.S. CO2 Emissions: The Role of State vs. Aggregate Information

15 Pages Posted: 30 Jan 2007

See all articles by Max Auffhammer

Max Auffhammer

University of California, Berkeley - College of Natural Resources, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics

Ralf Steinhauser

Universit at Hamburg; Research School of Economics

Abstract

This paper provides comparisons of a variety of time-series methods for short-run forecasts of the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, for the United States, using a recently released state-level data set from 1960-2001. We test the out-of-sample performance of univariate and multivariate forecasting models by aggregating state-level forecasts versus forecasting the aggregate directly. We find evidence that forecasting the disaggregate series and accounting for spatial effects drastically improves forecasting performance under root mean squared forecast error loss. Based on the in-sample observations we attempt to explain the emergence of voluntary efforts by states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We find evidence that states with decreasing per capita emissions and a greener median voter are more likely to push toward voluntary cutbacks in emissions.

Suggested Citation

Auffhammer, Maximilian and Steinhauser, Ralf, The Future Trajectory of U.S. CO2 Emissions: The Role of State vs. Aggregate Information. Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 47, No. 1, pp. 47-61, February 2007. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=960362 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9787.2007.00499.x

Maximilian Auffhammer (Contact Author)

University of California, Berkeley - College of Natural Resources, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics ( email )

Berkeley, CA 94720
United States

Ralf Steinhauser

Universit at Hamburg ( email )

Welckerstr. 8,
Hamburg, Hamburg 20354
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.wiso.uni-hamburg.de/professuren/vwl-wachstum-umwelt-und-ressourcen/

Research School of Economics ( email )

Arndt Building 25a
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200
Australia
0261254667 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://rse.anu.edu.au/people/people.php?ID=950

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