Consumer Confidence and Elections

63 Pages Posted: 9 Feb 2007  

Dimitrios D. Thomakos

University of Peloponnese - School of Management and Economics

Gikas A. Hardouvelis

University of Piraeus; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: February 10, 2007


An event study analysis is performed on consumer confidence around election times using an effective sample of 84 national elections from 1985 through 2005 in the EU-15 countries. Consumer confidence is measured monthly using identical surveys, which began in 1985 and were gradually adopted by all EU-15 countries. Consumer confidence increases a number of months before the date of national elections and falls subsequently, a pattern that differs depending on whether the incumbent party wins or loses. Consumer confidence is able to predict positively the probability of re-election of the incumbent party and has extra predictive power over and above several macroeconomic variables that are used in the political business cycle literature. A similar behavior characterizes consumer confidence in the United States.

Keywords: consumer confidence, national elections, incumbent party, elections fatigue, macro-economy, fiscal conditions, political business cycle, EU-15, USA

JEL Classification: D10, D72, E61, E62, 051, 052

Suggested Citation

Thomakos, Dimitrios D. and Hardouvelis, Gikas A., Consumer Confidence and Elections (February 10, 2007). Available at SSRN: or

Dimitrios D. Thomakos (Contact Author)

University of Peloponnese - School of Management and Economics ( email )

Department of Economics
22100 Tripolis
+30 2710 230139 (Fax)


Gikas A. Hardouvelis

University of Piraeus ( email )

80 Karaoli & Dimitriou Str.
18534 Piraeus, 185 34 -GR
+32010 4142323 (Phone)
+3210 6724848 (Fax)


Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

77 Bastwick Street
London, EC1V 3PZ
United Kingdom

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