The Innovation Threshold

Abstract

In this paper, we propose an economic model to analyse the sales out of new products. This model accounts for the fact that even among firms for which R&D is a permanent activity, a fraction of firms does not have sales of innovative products during a two-year observation period. We propose a model in which the fixed costs of introduction is a major concern in the decision making process. In a structural model we estimate the fixed costs of the market introduction of new products and explain subsequent sales of innovative products. We examine a indicator of innovative output, i.e. sales of products 'new to the firm'. We estimate fixed costs thresholds using data from the Dutch part of the Community Innovation Survey (CIS) from 1998. R&D intensity, competition and market structure have a positive impact on sales of new products. The most important factors to decrease the fixed costs threshold of introduction are product related R&D investments, R&D subsidies and knowledge spillovers.

Keywords: Innovation, Product R&D, Threshold model

JEL Classification: C51, L23, O30